Of the top 100 coins in 2017, only three rose 100x, and those three make up 71% of the basket.

00 — Editor's Letter

100x. Of the top 100 coins in 2017, only three rose by that much, and those three account for 71% of the value of the whole basket.

Risk assets weakened over the past two weeks. Over the 15-session window the Kospi fell 15.1%, the VN-Index fell 5.4% and silver fell 13.7%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 5.19%, and September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier. Bitcoin's 15/10 daily candle closed at $81,604, down 3.29%; Ethereum fell 9.86%.

On the news side: Strive and Strategy kept buying Bitcoin, Standard Chartered opened RLUSD custody, and Coinbase described its preparation for post-quantum signatures. This issue's token profile is BNB.

A note on timing: the figures were measured at 21:43 UTC on 15/10, which is 04:43 on 16/10 in Vietnam. FRED's broad dollar index lags by several days, and Treasury yields are as of 14/10.

01 — Global Equities and Macro

The 20-Indicator Table

• S&P 500 — 7,719 · +0.17%
• Euro Stoxx 50 — 6,190 · −1.74%
• FTSE 100 — 10,725 · +0.18%
• Nikkei 225 — 67,744 · +4.19%
• Hang Seng — 24,314 · −2.09%
• Shanghai — 3,767 · −4.30%
• Kospi — 6,009 · −15.14%
• Taiwan — 48,626 · +0.97%
• Singapore — 5,423 · −5.02%
• India · Nifty 50 — 22,623 · −3.51%
• Australia · ASX 200 — 8,728 · −0.43%
• Vietnam · VN-Index — 1,704.87 · −5.37%
• Gold — $4,108 · −4.87%
• Silver — $55.55 · −13.72%
• Brent crude — $106.06 · +2.89%
• Dollar · broad index — 121.60 · +1.75%
• 10-year yield — 5.19% · +23 basis points
• VIX · fear — 16.87 · +11.13%
• USD/VND — 25,913 · −0.38%
• Crypto market cap — $2.786 trillion · −3.29% (Bitcoin's move)

Against the level 15 sessions earlier (23/09/2026); close of 14/10/2026. Separate reference points: the Nikkei 225 is measured against 18/09 (holiday); the broad dollar index is as of 09/10 against 18/09 (FRED publishes late); the 10-year yield is against 22/09 and its change is in basis points; the crypto market-cap change follows Bitcoin over 15 sessions (00:00 UTC candle on 15/10 against 24/09). Sources: Yahoo Finance, VNDirect, FRED, CoinGecko.

12 red cells, 8 green. The green cells are the S&P 500, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, Taiwan, Brent crude, the broad dollar index, the 10-year yield and the VIX. Among the indices and commodities, the sharpest fall is the Kospi (−15.14%) and the sharpest rise is the Nikkei 225 (+4.19%).

Fed

The federal funds ceiling is 4.00% and the effective rate is 3.88% (14/10). The 2-year yield is 4.82%, which is 82 basis points above the ceiling. The 10-year yield is 5.19%, below the 5.29% of 30/09. · FRED

Global Equities

Wall Street was almost flat: the S&P 500 closed at 7,718.94 (+0.17%). Europe fell: Euro Stoxx 50 −1.74%; FTSE 100 +0.18%.

Asia

The Nikkei (+4.19%, measured against 18/09) and Taiwan (+0.97%) went against the trend. The rest fell: Kospi −15.14%, Singapore −5.02%, Shanghai −4.30%, India −3.51%, Hang Seng −2.09%, ASX 200 −0.43%.

Vietnam

The VN-Index stood at 1,704.87 on 14/10, down 5.37% over 15 sessions. USD/VND is 25,913 (−0.38%).

Dollar · Gold · Silver · Oil

The broad dollar index is 121.60 as of 09/10, +1.75% against 18/09. Gold is $4,107.9 an ounce (−4.87%), silver $55.55 an ounce (−13.72%) and Brent $106.06 (+2.89%). Gold, silver and oil prices are futures contracts.

Bridge to Crypto

Total crypto market capitalisation is $2.79 trillion at 21:43 UTC on 15/10, down 1.88% in 24 hours; Bitcoin makes up 59.2% of it.

02 — World Finance

US inflation in September accelerated because of petrol. Long-term yields remain above the Fed's ceiling.

US Inflation, September · CPI

• Headline CPI — +0.6% month on month · 3.7% year on year
• Core CPI — +0.3% · 2.6%
• Petrol — +9.1% · 34.2%
• Energy — +5.2% · 20.4%
• Shelter — +0.4% · 3.2%
• Food — 0.0% · 2.5%

The BLS notes that petrol accounted for more than half of the headline increase in the month. For August, in the same release: headline 3.4%, core 2.4% year on year. Month-on-month figures are seasonally adjusted. · BLS, published 14/10/2026

The Rates Box

• Fed ceiling — 4.00% (15/10 · unchanged against 22/09)
• 2-year yield — 4.82% (14/10 · +11 basis points against 22/09)
• 10-year yield — 5.19% (14/10 · +23 basis points against 22/09)
• 30-year yield — 5.52% (14/10 · +23 basis points against 22/09)
• 10-year minus 2-year — 0.37 points (14/10)
• Broad dollar index — 121.60 (09/10 · +1.75% against 18/09)

Each indicator has its own cut-off date. Source: FRED.

Macro Indicators

• Effective Fed rate · ceiling — 3.88% · ceiling 4.00% (14/10)
• Fed balance sheet — $6.76 trillion (+$12.6 billion against 30/09) (14/10)
• Reverse repo — $1.2 billion (15/10)
• Treasury General Account — $883.4 billion ($948.7 billion on 30/09) (14/10)
• M2 money supply — $23.34 trillion (August 2026)
• Brent crude · gold — $106.06 · $4,107.9 an ounce (14/10)

Strive · Two Filings, Two Purchases

Strive (ASST) filed two 8-Ks during the week. On 13/10: it bought 3,311 bitcoin on 5–9/10 at an average price of about $84,500, bringing total holdings to 32,773 bitcoin; cash is $310.3 million. On 14/10: it bought a further 2,822 bitcoin on 12–13/10 at an average of about $83,266, while 273,493,909 PIPE warrants were exercised, corresponding to 13,674,703 Class A shares, with expected gross proceeds of $369.2 million. Adding the two filings gives about 35,595 bitcoin (Cosmos's own arithmetic, correct if there were no other transactions in between). · SEC, 13/10 · SEC, 14/10

Strategy · 250 Bitcoin and the STRC Preferred

From 5 to 11/10, Strategy bought 250 bitcoin for $21.5 million, an average of $86,194. The company holds 848,250 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,444. In the same period Strategy repurchased 1,932,145 STRC preferred shares worth $192.4 million; its US-dollar reserve for dividends and interest is $4.88 billion. · Strategy, 12/10/2026

Standard Chartered · RLUSD Custody Is Live

On 12/10 Standard Chartered said that institutional custody for RLUSD on the XRP Ledger is operating, through its DFSA-regulated DIFC branch, for eligible clients. The use of RLUSD as collateral for LMAX Group is still only planned, pending final agreements, testing and approvals. · Standard Chartered, 12/10/2026

Tether · Memorandum with the National Bank of Kazakhstan

On 07/10 Tether signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the Alatau City authority to study stablecoin issuance models, to prepare a pilot proposal for a tenge-pegged stablecoin and a framework for tokenising assets. No stablecoin has been issued. · Tether, 07/10/2026

03 — The Crypto Market

Measured over 15 sessions: the 00:00 UTC candle of 15/10 against the candle of 24/09. Updated at 21:43 UTC on 15/10. Sources: CoinGecko, Binance, Alternative.me.

• Bitcoin — $81,604 · −3.29% over 15 sessions
• Ethereum — $2,420 · −9.86% over 15 sessions
• Solana — $104.19 · −9.39% over 15 sessions
• Total market capitalisation — $2.79 trillion · −1.88% in 24 hours
• Bitcoin dominance — 59.2% of total market capitalisation
• Fear and Greed Index — 53, Neutral (24/09: 71, Greed)

Bitcoin · 15 Sessions and 12 Months

The 15/10 candle closed at $81,604, −3.29% against $84,382 on 24/09. Over 12 months the high is $114,419 (27/10/2025) and the low is $58,566 (01/07/2026). Bitcoin is 28.7% below the high and 39.3% above the low.

Derivatives · Funding

• BTCUSDT — funding 0.0078% · open interest 94,506 BTC · $7.77 billion
• ETHUSDT — funding 0.0100% · open interest 2,257,025 ETH · $5.55 billion
• SOLUSDT — funding 0.0064% · open interest 8,816,332 SOL · $0.93 billion

With positive funding, leveraged buyers pay sellers every 8 hours. ETH's 0.0100% equals Binance's base interest rate. Source: Binance premiumIndex and openInterest, 21:43 UTC on 15/10.

Top Gainers · 14 Days

• Quack AI (Q) — rank #165 · +149.7%
• Basic Attention (BAT) — #136 · +141.9%
• Starknet (STRK) — #101 · +111.3%
• GRX Chain (GRX) — #181 · +71.7%
• Collector Crypt (CARDS) — #145 · +65.1%
• Pearl (PRL) — #100 · +60.7%
• Fluid (FLUID) — #190 · +57.7%
• Walrus (WAL) — #231 · +50.6%
• Sonic (S) — #176 · +44.6%
• ZKsync (ZK) — #195 · +41.2%

Top Losers · 14 Days

• DoubleZero (2Z) — #202 · −40.5%
• Monad (MON) — #152 · −33.7%
• Pons (PONS) — #171 · −32.8%
• Backpack (BP) — #161 · −29.5%
• Useless Coin (USELESS) — #200 · −28.4%
• Cash Cat (CASHCAT) — #250 · −27.2%
• Mantle (MNT) — #58 · −22.9%
• Pump.fun (PUMP) — #49 · −22.2%
• Lighter (LIT) — #91 · −21.4%
• MemeCore (M) — #54 · −21.2%

Among the 250 largest coins by market capitalisation, with stablecoins, wrapped tokens and price-anchored assets removed. For some tokens the market capitalisation is self-reported by the project. Source: CoinGecko, 21:43 UTC on 15/10.

Market Breadth

Of the remaining 226 coins, 62 rose and 164 fell over 14 days: 27% of coins went up.

04 — Crypto Moves

Coinbase · About 12% of Bitcoin, Preparing for Post-Quantum Signatures

On 13/10 Shashank Agrawal wrote on the Coinbase blog that Coinbase is one of the largest crypto custodians and holds about 12% of all Bitcoin in existence. Coinbase is preparing its systems for the post-quantum era, discussing with Bitcoin developers and taking part in the Bitcoin Security Consortium. The author notes this is a contribution to an open discussion, not Coinbase's final position. · Coinbase, 13/10/2026

Binance · Closing Pool

Binance will close Binance Pool, Pool Savings, Cloud Mining and Transaction Accelerator at 07:00 UTC on 10/11/2026. The history page, account ledger and payout status stay open until 07:00 UTC on 24/11. · Binance, 13/10/2026

Privy and Ripple · Wallets on the XRP Ledger

On 13/10 Privy said it is working with Ripple to bring Privy wallets to the XRP Ledger, for XRP, RLUSD and other assets: embedded wallets for users paying in stablecoins and server-side wallets for AI agents, including x402 payments. Policy controls and fee sponsorship will be added later. · Privy, 13/10/2026

05 — Market Outlook

Bonds and crypto read the same script this period: higher for longer. Fable, Chief Strategy Officer, raises K3 (Second Wave) from 15 to 25 and cuts K1 (Late Soft Landing) from 30 to 20.

Figures were measured at 21:43 UTC on 15/10/2026 (04:43 in Vietnam on 16/10); additional Cosmos Digital measurements carry their own time stamps.

The Three Answers A04 Promised

September CPI (14/10). Headline +0.6% in the month and 3.7% year on year; core +0.3% in the month and 2.6% year on year; petrol +9.1% in the month, accounting for more than half of the rise. The Dow Jones survey had expected 3.6% and 2.5%: both numbers came in above expectations. A04's question, whether core would stay below 2.5% or jump, has an answer: it jumped, but only slightly; the heat is in energy. · BLS, September 2026 CPI

FOMC minutes (07/10, meeting of 15–16/09). All participants supported the 25-basis-point increase. The most important sentence is in the outlook paragraph: most participants assessed that another increase in the target range would likely be appropriate by year end. Some participants viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive. Fed staff estimated August PCE inflation at 3.8%, core at 3.4% (under the BEA's new methodology: 3.6% and 3.2%). The minutes were written before the +29,000 jobs report of 02/10. · FOMC minutes, 15–16/09/2026

Did Bitcoin post a weekly close above $86,597? No. The week ending 04/10 closed at $86,530 on Binance, $67 short; the week ending 11/10 closed at $83,773. The highest of the 00:00 UTC points in October was $86,490 (05/10, CoinGecko). By 15/10 the price was $81,604, −3.29% over 15 sessions; Ethereum −9.86%, Solana −9.39%. The $83–86 thousand ceiling band did the job of a ceiling band.

Yields. The 2-year yield of 4.82% against the Fed ceiling of 4.00%: a gap of 82 basis points (14/10), narrower than the 88 in A04 (4.88% on 30/09) but 7 points wider than the 4.75% low of 08/10. The 10-year yield of 5.19% is below the 5.31% peak (05/10) but still above 5.0%. · FRED DGS2 · FRED DGS10

Two Markets, One Script

In A04 bonds read K3 while crypto read K1. This period the two meet at K2. Bonds: the 10-year yield retreated from its peak but did not leave 5%, and the 2-year edged up, which is "higher for longer". Crypto: US Bitcoin ETFs turned around, with net outflows of $408.7 million on 01–09/10 (three inflow sessions of +$411.4 million, four outflow sessions of −$820.1 million; the 07/10 session lost $484.9 million, the largest of the period), after net inflows of +$3.03 billion over the 15 sessions of the previous period. The Fear and Greed Index fell from 71 (24/09) to 53. Binance funding of 0.0078% every 8 hours means buyers are not using leverage, so the fall is money leaving, not liquidations. · Farside, Bitcoin ETFs

One new signal outside crypto: the Kospi −15.14%, silver −13.72%, VN-Index −5.37% (14/10 against 23/09); the broad dollar index 121.60 (09/10), +1.75% against 18/09. K4's fuse, the US high-yield bond spread, now has a number: 2.68% on 22/09 to 3.25% on 14/10, 57 basis points wider in three weeks. 3.25% is still low against episodes of credit stress (above 4%), but the direction is wider. · FRED, ICE BofA HY OAS

Four Scenarios · From $81,604 · To Q3 2027

K1 · Late soft landing — weight 20 (was 30). The Fed stops at 4.00%, core PCE turns down in Q4, and the 10-year yield falls below 4.5% in Q1 2027. Bitcoin posts a weekly close above $86,597 and holds; altcoins recover selectively. Cut because the minutes say most participants see the need for another increase by year end, core CPI jumped to 2.6%, and Bitcoin could not hold the ceiling band.

K2 · Higher for longer, the base case — weight 40 (held). The Fed stays put in October, raises at most once more, then stands at 4.00–4.25% until mid-2027; the 10-year yield is stuck at 5.0–5.3%. Bitcoin ranges between $62,000 and $86,000, rejected at the ceiling band; ETFs reverse with the news; altcoins stay weak. Held because the branch where the Fed stays put in October is still 66%; the K2 path now includes a December hike followed by a pause.

K3 · Second wave — weight 25 (was 15). Petrol and producer prices push headline inflation above 4%; the Fed raises a total of 50 basis points by December; the 10-year yield holds above 5.2% through Q4. Bitcoin loses the $62,000 floor and tests $52,000–58,000; the recovery is late, at the end of 2027. Raised because headline CPI is 3.7% on petrol +9.1%, the probability of a December hike is up to 63%, and the 2-year yield of 4.82% already prices that hike.

K4 · Broken by leverage — weight 15 (held). Rates stay high long enough to break one link in the debt chain (AI capital spending, private credit, crypto treasury companies); the Fed cuts in an emergency; Bitcoin falls about 30% and then recovers in a V. Held because the new fuse moved from 2.68% to 3.25% and has not crossed 4%; the Kospi −15% and silver −14% are deleveraging, not defaults. K4's weight changes when the high-yield spread exceeds 4.0%.

The FOMC Switch 27–28/10 · Weights After the Meeting

The market prices: hold 66%, a 25-basis-point hike 34%.

• Hold, statement says "monitor further" — K1 25 · K2 45 · K3 15 · K4 15
• Hold but signal December (a dissent for a hike, or a statement stressing inflation) — K1 15 · K2 45 · K3 25 · K4 15
• Hike 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25% — K1 10 · K2 30 · K3 45 · K4 15

Within the 66% hold, Cosmos Digital leans to the second branch because of the minutes' sentence on another increase by year end.

What the Market Is Pricing

• Fed holds on 28/10? — 66% hold · 34% hike of 25 basis points (before CPI: about 22% hike). CME FedWatch via Forbes · 14:45 Eastern time, 14/10
• Fed hikes 25 basis points in December? — 63%. CME FedWatch via Forbes · same time
• What the 2-year yield says — 4.82% = effective rate 3.88% + 94 basis points: the average rate over the next two years is priced higher than today's, not lower. FRED DGS2, DFF · 14/10
• K4's fuse: the high-yield bond spread — 3.25%, from 2.68% on 22/09. FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 · 14/10
• Bitcoin options expiring 30/10 — open interest 150,347 BTC; put/call ratio 0.52; maximum pain $79,000; the largest open interest is the $95,000 call (25,768 BTC); index price $82,431. Deribit · 22:05 UTC on 15/10
• Bitcoin buyers' leverage — funding 0.0078% every 8 hours, slightly positive. Binance · 21:43 UTC on 15/10

The last three lines tell one story: options are still placed mostly in the $95,000 call, while maximum pain at $79,000 sits below the price, so option sellers profit if the price stays still until 30/10.

Bitcoin Between Two Structural Bands

The A03–A04 bands hold: a ceiling at $83,000–86,000 and a floor at $62,000–65,000. The condition A04 set has triggered the K2 branch exactly: the price returned below $83,000 ($81,604) while the 10-year yield stayed above 5.0% (5.19%). The two bands are structural zones defined by Cosmos Digital, not price targets. The next ruling comes from the weekly close: above $86,597 is K1 taking the lead back; between $65,000 and $83,000 is K2; losing $62,000 is K3. The options level of $79,000 is a reference to 30/10, not a band.

Top panel: Bitcoin price; bottom panel: 10-year yield, on a shared time axis, each panel with its own scale. Sources: CoinGecko, FRED.

What We Will Watch and Report in A06 (02/11)

The FOMC decision of 28/10: the vote count, and whether the statement says anything about December; this is the switch. September core PCE (BEA, end of October): does it fall below 3.0%. Whether the 10-year yield holds above 5.0% through 28/10. ETF flows in the three sessions after the FOMC. The weekly close of 01/11 against $83,000 and $86,597. Whether the high-yield spread exceeds 4.0%, the threshold that changes K4's weight. The October jobs report (06/11) goes into A07.

— Fable, Chief Strategy Officer, Cosmos Digital

06 — Token of the Issue

BNB · ticker BNB · native asset of BNB Chain · ranked 4th by market capitalisation

BNB is the native asset of BNB Chain and ranks 4th by market capitalisation, but its price is almost half below the October 2025 peak.

What It Is · How It Works

BNB runs on BNB Smart Chain the way ETH runs on Ethereum: it pays fees for deploying contracts, is staked for validators, and moves between BSC, opBNB and Greenfield. The consensus mechanism is Proof of Staked Authority; the group that produces the most blocks, called the Cabinet, has 21 validators. Block rewards come from transaction fees, with no new BNB issued, and part of the gas fee is burned in every block. CoinGecko also describes using BNB to reduce fees on Binance. · BSC whitepaper · CoinGecko

How It Came About

Binance sold BNB in its July 2017 ICO; Changpeng Zhao said the sale raised $15 million. The Beacon Chain, the network for the decentralised exchange, launched to the community in April 2019. BNB Smart Chain, running in parallel with an Ethereum-compatible virtual machine, launched on 01/09/2020. In 2023 opBNB (a layer 2 on the OP Stack) arrived, and in November 2023 the BEP-333 proposal to merge the Beacon Chain into BSC followed. · BSC documentation · CryptoSlate

The Team and Funds Behind It

BNB was created by Binance; Changpeng Zhao is Binance's founder. The whitepaper and the BSC documentation name no funding round beyond the ICO.

What Problem It Solves

The Beacon Chain was fast but not programmable. BSC added smart contracts while staying compatible with Ethereum so applications could move over with few changes. BSC is a standalone chain, not a layer 2.

Finance · Supply and Price

• Price — $730.46 at 21:43 UTC on 15/10
• Market capitalisation — $97.27 billion, rank 4th
• 24-hour volume — $1.04 billion, same time
• 15 sessions — −4.87%, candle $729.90 against $767.23
• All-time high — $1,369.99 on 13/10/2025 · now 46.7% below
• Supply — 133.16 million in circulation · maximum 200 million

Price, market capitalisation, volume and supply: CoinGecko, 21:43 UTC on 15/10. 15 sessions: 00:00 UTC candle. High: CoinGecko's ath field. Maximum supply is 200 million; total supply is now 133.16 million.

Price by Year · 2017 to Date

• 2017 (from 09/11) — start 2.05 · end 8.64 · +320.6% · low–high 1.46–11.30
• 2018 — 8.63 · 6.16 · −28.6% · 4.19–24.91
• 2019 — 6.19 · 13.73 · +122.7% · 5.49–39.57
• 2020 — 13.73 · 37.38 · +172.3% · 6.96–39.48
• 2021 — 37.37 · 512 · +1,269.1% · 35.17–691
• 2022 — 512 · 246 · −51.9% · 185–533
• 2023 — 246 · 312 · +26.8% · 204–350
• 2024 — 312 · 701 · +124.4% · 288–793
• 2025 — 701 · 863 · +23.1% · 510–1,371
• 2026 (to 15/10) — 863 · 729 · −15.6% · 539–955

Units: dollars. Prices are the closing price of the UTC daily candle; lows and highs are intraday prices. 2017: the change is measured from the opening price of 09/11/2017, the first day with data; later years against the previous year-end price. 2026 is to 15/10. Intraday highs from Yahoo Finance can differ by a few dollars from CoinGecko. · Yahoo Finance, BNB-USD

On-Chain · Infrastructure

• BSC launch — 01/09/2020
• Block time — about 0.45 seconds according to the BSC documentation, after the Lorentz, Maxwell and Fermi hard forks; the older whitepaper says 3 seconds
• Validators — the Cabinet has 21 validators (whitepaper)
• Fees — BNB pays transaction fees; part of the gas is burned in every block
• Other layers — opBNB (layer 2, OP Stack, 2023) · Greenfield (storage, with a bridge to BSC)

Potential · What Is Coming

The whitepaper lists three directions: a parallel virtual machine, state expiry and continued decentralisation. No dates have been given for the three.

Analysts' Price Expectations

There is no report from a named institution with a stated method for a BNB price.

Four Things to Weigh

One. BNB is tied to an exchange: Binance regulation or incidents hit the token directly. Two. Over 15 sessions BNB fell 4.87%, milder than Ethereum (9.86%) but heavier than Bitcoin (3.29%). Three. The price is 46.7% below its high even though total supply has fallen from the 200 million maximum to 133.16 million, so a shrinking supply does not guarantee price. Four. BNB is both the on-chain fee and is described as the fee-discount token on the exchange; the two roles share one issuer risk.

07 — Story of the Issue

How Do You Hold On to a 100x Token?

12x. At the start of 2017, if you put $100 into each coin in the top 100 ($10,000 in total) and never sold, the portfolio would be worth about $122,000 today. The same $10,000 in a savings account at 6% a year would have grown to only about $17,700. · CoinMarketCap, top 100 on 01/01/2017 · 12-month savings rate, 01/10/2026

Inside the Basket

The 12x figure hides a harsh reality. Of the 100 coins of 2017, only 10 are still in the top 100 today (such as BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE). Half are no longer quoted at all, and 71 coins are below their purchase price.

So why did the whole basket still earn so much? Because three coins, DOGE, ETH and XRP, make up 71% of the portfolio's value. Most of the rest went to zero.

First conclusion: holding a broad basket for ten years was profitable, about 29% a year. But not because most coins were good: a very small number paid for all the others.

The Counter-Argument: The Entry Point Decides

This is not yet "regardless of volatility". Doing exactly the same thing from the January 2018 peak, after 8.8 years the basket is worth only 0.69 times its cost, a 31% loss. Testing every starting month from 01/2017 to 10/2022: the top-100 basket beat savings interest in 54% of months. Most are months that began before 2021; from 2021 onwards only 1 month in 22 (buying near a peak, with only 4–5 years of holding). Holding time and entry point matter as much as the basket itself.

Why Diversify

No one knows in advance which coin will be the DOGE or ETH of the next cycle. Pick one coin at random from the 2017 top 100: a 71% chance of losing money and only a 3% chance of reaching 100x. Pick 20 coins at random: the chance of a loss falls to 7%, and almost half of the baskets contain a 100x coin. Pick 50 coins: almost no losses. A basket does not need to guess right; it only needs to be present when the winner appears.

The effect is so strong that if the three best coins had simply stood still, the whole basket would still have multiplied 3.6 times, still beating savings. Equities are the same: Professor Bessembinder's research shows that fewer than 4% of US stocks created all of the market's net wealth. · Alpha Architect, summary of Bessembinder

And Today?

Does investing in new technology and trends (AI, blockchain infrastructure and so on) beat savings interest? The historical data answers conditionally. Across the 70 starting months above, the chance of beating savings is about 15% if you pick one coin, 44% if you pick 20 coins at random, and 54% if you hold the whole top-100 basket. Diversification raises the chance of winning, but that chance still hovers around half.

The Cosmos View

New technology may be where the next decade's 100x returns come from, but the data shows it is a game of broad baskets, long time horizons and small positions. Four conditions for "holding a 100x" to stand: a basket of many tokens rather than a few "sure things"; a holding period of 8 to 10 years; accepting that the basket will at times fall by more than half without selling in a panic; and not piling in while the whole market is euphoric, as in 2018 or 2021. The history of technology stocks makes the same point: the Nasdaq took 15 years to regain its 2000 peak. · Fortune, 24/04/2015. For money you need within the next 1–3 years, savings at 6% a year has a fixed term and a clear rate, while a crypto basket can fall by more than half in that very period. These are conditions to check against, not advice to buy, sell or hold.

— Yin Yang

08 — The Cosmos Ecosystem

Anthropic is working with Cosmos AI Lab: the Claude Startups programme gives CAL close to $20,000 in credits over one year.

For CAL, that is a year with enough resources for the AI team to keep producing newsletters and research. The programme's pull is the demand to sign up: in a single week applications exceeded 21 times the total of all previous weeks combined, which shows that AI demand among startups is still very strong. Anthropic has now stopped taking new applications and has not said when it will reopen; but Claude is not the only place startups can turn to. · Claude Startups

09 — Calendar

Macro · Vietnam Time

• 28–29/10 — FOMC meets 27–28/10; decision at 14:00 Eastern time on 28/10 (01:00 on 29/10 Vietnam time); press conference at 14:30 (01:30 Vietnam time). · Fed
• 29/10 · 19:30 — US preliminary Q3 GDP and September personal income and outlays (PCE). · BEA
• 30/10 · 19:30 — US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3. · BLS

Markets

• 19/10 — Upbit and Bithumb delist ICX. · PANews
• 28/10 — Strategy shareholder meeting on daily dividends for its four preferred stocks. · The Block
• 10/11 · 07:00 UTC — Binance closes Pool, Pool Savings, Cloud Mining and Transaction Accelerator. · Binance
• 24/11 · 07:00 UTC — The Binance Pool history page closes for good. · Binance

From Cosmos

• 17/10 — CAL Signal issue B08, the English-language AI technology newsletter, published every Saturday.
• Next issue — A06, published on 02/11/2026.